A. Implement concrete plans to win over the 10%-15% of previous PAP voters who voted for the opposition this election. Statistically speaking, if the overall vote for PAP falls below 60% at any one time with more than half of the seats contested, PAP will definitely lose seats (i.e. 2001 election, 61% of popular vote translated into 4 opposition members)
1. Younger Singaporeans (25-40) who desire more opposition members elected into Parliament
a. Coming down hard against the opposition parties such as hammering WP over the
b. Allow more PAP MPs to be more openly critical in Parliament.
c. Leverage on non overt party channels such as the Feedback Unit to target this specific group of younger Singaporeans. Young PAP tends to attrack young Singaporeans who have a predisposition to the party already.
2. Middle class Singaporeans who are more willing to vote for more credible opposition candidates ( a more important segment in terms of number of votes than the younger Singaporean mentioned above)
a. Desire to build a first world opposition by encouraging parties like WP to recruit more credible oppositions members for the next election will result in loss of PAP votes from this segment
b. Recruiting younger Singaporeans as PAP candidates from less well-off socio-economic background, such as those living in public housing with a history of volunteer work and excellent academic and career track record may encourage this segment to continue to vote for PAP. The current perception is that many (definitely not all) of the younger PAP candidates come from higher socio-economic backgrounds that the middle and lower class cannot relate to.
The 20-30% opposition loyalists are mostly Singaporeans who have an issue to pick with the government and are mainly from the lower socio-economic strata who directly feel the adverse impact of rapid globalization.
B. Continuing to govern well as per the last 40 years will ensure at least 55-60% of popular votes unless two things happen, which in my opinion is very unlikely in the next 5 years with the leadership of the PM Lee
1. Obvious corruption in the PAP senior ranks that is not addressed
2. Internal party conflicts which is apparent to the general public
Next Steps for Worker Party moving forward – all about organization development
Strategic Next Steps
1. Retain, motivate and recruit credible candidates now in order to contest more GRC in the future. PAP has a lot of resources, but if they are contested in every ward, they will be stretched. With good people, the organization will be strengthened.
2. Focus on winning two, if not at least one GRC, while contesting for at least 5 to 7 GRCs for 2011. May need to consider strategic bets such as placing Mr. Low and Ms. Lim on a GRC slate in 2011 together, and handing over Hougang to a new WP candidate. Handing over Hougang to a new WP candidate will take a 5 year plan to do so methodically.
3. Need to think about how to move more towards the middle ground to court the swing voters without alienating the loyal opposition voters. Proposing more socio-welfare policies without too much (obvious) fiscal irresponsibility will be the key to keep the loyal opposition voters (20-30%) and to win the swing voters (20-25%). You need 51% of the voters to be elected into parliament, not 55, 60 or 75%.
Tactical next steps
4. Take note of all PAP's promises in the contested constituencies to make sure these promises are realised so WP can remind the voters in the next election if these are not executed. Five years is a long time, but only an organization that can meticulously think of the next election in detail right now will be successful given the (very) high standards set by the incumbent party.
5. Ensure learning and takeaways from this election are documented for the next election. E.g. Establish a checklist for election paperwork for every candidate in the next election; assign an administrative/logistic/paperwork executive to every GRC and SMC.
6. Expand the current website by providing at least English and Chinese versions, if not also Malay and Tamil versions too. Advertise the url as often as possible in all forms of communication to provide more information to the swing voters who are the middle class who do use the internet (especially more in 5 years time).
7. Celebrate the good showings as quickly as possible after the election as compared to 2001 because it is important to galvanize the ground troops. Results should always be framed with reference to the dismal showing in 2001, with the intention to focus on the 2011 elections. The ground troops are critical in the election. One key to the PAP success is definitely the ability to attract sincere people to help with the ground.
On a last note to both PAP and WP, as PM had said, the successful party is one who can imagine how Singapore will be in 5 years time in terms of how the demographics will be shifting, and who will be the new loyal PAP and Opposition voters and the swing voters.
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