Changes are written in terms of impact
Spreading of PAP resources: More seats are now being contested as the opposition camp drops its by-election strategy. Therefore, PAP will not be able to channel resources from uncontested wards to assist the contested wards in campaigning.
Coordination of opposition parties: For the first time in opposition history, there is a central coordination effort. Fewer three or four cornered fights will result in more intense campaigning by PAP for wards where they face only one opposition candidate as the opposition votes are not divided. Every vote counts more now.
Radicalization of SDP: SDP is attracting the more liberal and radical activists, which effectively reduces the level of radicalism in SDA and WP, resulting in the two parties becoming more palatable to the electorate. The past breakup of opposition parties is part of the evolution process for a nascent opposition where personalities dominate, and there is a clear separation between the SDA/WP and SDP now.
Moving towards the center: SDA and WP are moving towards PAP's position in a gradual fashion, making them ironically more of a viable alternative to the incumbent party.
Lack of past voting behavior: The lack of past voting behaviors because of systematic walkover may result in a higher number of swing voters in the coming election. As more Singaporeans are virgin voters, even those who are in the 30s and 40s, they will more likely be influenced by the campaigning because of recency effects and they are not constrained by any past voting behaviors.
Improved quality of opposition candidates: Almost all the PAP and opposition candidates have similar education levels, work experiences and share the same passion to serve Singapore. The litmus test is whether you look at the profile of an opposition candidate and imagine him or her standing as a PAP candidate.Adverse impact of previous walkovers on PAP candidates: Opposition candidates are mentally prepared for a hard period of campaigning as they have to contest against the incumbents. However, many of the PAP candidates are newly introduced or had won by walkovers. The systematic walkovers in the past have reduced the level of campaigning experiences amongst PAP candidates. Also, the lack of opposition members in Parliament makes the renewal process in the opposition camp more straightforward than PAP who has to turnover ¼ of its incumbent MPs every election.
Defamation suits: Serving defamation suits against a party who has no fear about lawsuits and against Mr. Chee who does not fear going to jail and is already not eligible for election seems to be ineffective in winning more votes. Conversely, this may be playing into the SDP's hand because the defamation suits and SDP’s (false) accusation against the PAP leaders will be in the news constantly. However, PAP leaders have to defend their integrity (rightly so), and choose to use the same legal approach to do so. The key difference is that the parties PAP sues do not seem to fear the implications of the lawsuit unlike in previous suits.
Candidates’ announcements timeline: Opposition parties will continue to receive constant publicity from the time they announce their candidates all the way to nomination day, and benefit from the recency effect (electorate will remember the opposition candidates more). However, PAP has already announced their candidates earlier, and will not be able to provide a direct daily benchmark against the opposition candidates who are being announced right before nomination days.
Progress Packages becoming an entitlement: Singaporeans are so used to receiving economic handouts before an election that it may have become a form of entitlement. It is akin to a company always issuing dividends, and suffering from a drop of share price if they even cut their dividends. The impact of handouts on election results will diminish.Upgrading has become more common: As more flats have been upgraded and more new flats which don’t need upgrading have been built, it becomes less of an issue in many of the contested wards. This is still an effective tactic in the two opposition wards. Opposition contesting PAP controlled wards do not need to be too concern about the upgrading tactics.
If I were PAP, I would do the following things:
- Reinforce the fact that the party will continue to provide economic prosperity to the people, and that the party itself is of the highest integrity with internal accountability (i.e. do not need the check and balances of the traditional parliment)
- Refrain from suing opposition members before the polling day because it will give them a lot of unnecessary air time in the mass media. Electorate knows that the PAP is not corrupt (and I mean it in a serious way)
- Focus on winning the swing votes (30-25%). Put less focus on the PAP supporters (40-45%) and the opposition supporters (20-25%) because they are very much less influenced by the campaigning. To do so, think about what would convince the swing voters to vote for PAP, and act on that. Different swing voters focus on very different needs, ranging from economic security to political freedom.
- Do not lose a GRC as it will open a floodgate of opposition members in Parliment resulting in a tipping point in the political history of
- Continue to keep pressure on the two opposition wards as it will put the two opposition chiefs (Mr. Low and Mr. Chiam) in defensive mode and distract them from helping their party members. Assigning SM Goh as the resource person for the two wards is part of this strategy. However, this may be less effective now as there are alternate leaders within the two parties/coalitions (i.e. Sylvia and Steve) to take on the offensive.
The Straits Times
HE People's Action Party (PAP) needs to move with the times in order to satisfy the aspirations of a new generation of voters, said Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong.
'We can't fight the next battle using today's strategies,' he told reporters at the end of his two-day visit to Washington. 'We will not know what people's attitudes will be like four to five years from now, but we know it will be a different electorate.'
'The party is trying to understand the new ground - what the younger generation thinks and what we must do to meet their needs,' said SM Goh.
An example of this is how the Government is likely to take a softer stance on online political discussions during the next polls, he said.
SM Goh said a change in approach was needed since 'policies and strategies have to be shaped accordingly to meet the new mood'.
Therefore, it was not possible for the Government to keep its curbs on the use of new media indefinitely.
SM Goh also acknowledged during Friday's interview Singaporeans' strong desire for opposition MPs.
'The PAP is not out to have a clean sweep,' he said. 'What we are trying to offer is certainty of good government and good people in charge. So my message is this: Have your desire for opposition fulfilled, but never to the extent of changing the government.'
He stressed the importance of political stability saying that otherwise the country could lose investment as foreign companies become unsettled by any uncertainty.
SM Goh was in Washington as part of a regular exchange of high-level visits
